Blackjack Set

Pair Square (PS) is a simple-minded blackjack side bet that pays if the player’s first two cards are a pair. There is a premium payout if the pair is suited. This bet is also known by the name “Bet the Set, ” though I have never understood that name, as a “set” usually refers to Three-of-a-Kind in poker. This side bet has been around as long as the crows, but the question of vulnerability to advantage play has rarely been asked. There are no references to PS in Grojean’s “Beyond Counting, ” and a Google search also comes up blank. However, a simple thought experiment shows this wager must be vulnerable.

The right way to estimate the maximum vulnerability of PS is to “integrate.” This gives the optimal earnings possible by using computer-perfect play. My approach will be considerably more simple-minded. A few weeks ago I thought of a possible way to beat the bet. I simulated it and got some results. The method worked. Then I thought of a possibly stronger method. That worked too and it was better. I make no apologies for my lack of use of analytical power tools for this bet. Sometimes the bet just doesn’t deserve it.

There are different pay tables for the two-deck and six-deck versions. Reducing the number of decks normally increases the vulnerability of a bet to a card counting methodology. However, in the case of PS, the increase in house edge from the six-deck version 20/10 pay table (2.5723%) to the two-deck version 25/10 pay table (10.6796%) is enough to quash any such potential advantage. But the 20/10 pay table is very rare. Much more common for the six-deck game is the 15/10 pay table (10.3199%). The upshot is that the AP must scout for the 20/10 pay table if he has any chance against this bet.

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